{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102608",
  "record_slug": "us-reopens-embassy-in-iran-kalshi-2-2026-10-26",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-26T13:20:19.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "US reopening Iran embassy stays close to zero probability",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 2%",
  "headline": "US reopens embassy in Iran: Kalshi 2%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-26",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-34SYT4T2T1",
  "target_event_slug": "kxiranembassy-27",
  "event_question": "Will the United States reopen its embassy in Iran?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXIRANEMBASSY-27",
    "question_raw": "Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran before Jan 1, 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.018,
    "volume_24h_usd": 2.29,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "The New York Times",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi prediction market prices the U.S. reopening its embassy in Iran at just 2%.",
    "Trading volume on this contract rose 14,724% day over day, a sharp surge consistent with the news that U.S. personnel are being drawn down, not redeployed, in the region.",
    "Embassy staff reductions and heightened alert are the opposite of normalization, making the 2% pricing directionally aligned with the news even as volume spikes on attention.",
    "Resolves via The New York Times as the named source; formal reopening would require a diplomatic breakthrough well beyond current conditions."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Ammanuel Desta",
          "source_url": "https://www.justsecurity.org/162014/early-edition-october-26-2026/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-26T14:48:08+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The U.S. government put Middle East embassy staff on heightened alert and moved to reduce personnel at embassies and consulates after intelligence showed Iran is preparing potential retaliatory action.",
      "publisher": "Ammanuel Desta",
      "published_at": "2026-10-26T13:20:19.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.justsecurity.org/162014/early-edition-october-26-2026/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 2% with volume up nearly 148x day over day captures a market that is watching the Iran crisis intensify while keeping normalization firmly off the table."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Ammanuel Desta: Early Edition: October 26, 2026",
      "url": "https://www.justsecurity.org/162014/early-edition-october-26-2026/",
      "published_at": "2026-10-26T13:20:19.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-26T14:48:08+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-reopens-embassy-in-iran-kalshi-2-2026-10-26/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-reopens-embassy-in-iran-kalshi-2-2026-10-26.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}