{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026093008",
  "record_slug": "us-reopens-iran-embassy-kalshi-4-2026-09-30",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "US reopening its embassy in Iran stays a long shot at 4 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 4%",
  "headline": "US reopens Iran embassy: Kalshi 4%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-30",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-34SYT4T2T1",
  "target_event_slug": "kxiranembassy-27",
  "event_question": "Will the United States reopen its embassy in Iran?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXIRANEMBASSY-27",
    "question_raw": "Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran before Jan 1, 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.038,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0.08,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "The New York Times",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi puts only 4% odds on the United States reopening its embassy in Iran, a near-remote outcome despite active Qatar mediation.",
    "Qatar's two-page compromise proposal and U.S.-Iran trust-building talks show diplomatic movement, but the 4% price indicates markets see normalization as far beyond current negotiating distance.",
    "Officials describe talks as stuck on sequencing, consistent with the market's deeply skeptical read on full diplomatic restoration.",
    "Reopening an embassy represents a much higher bar than a nuclear or Hormuz agreement; companion markets on a US-Iran deal and Hormuz normalization would likely need to resolve first."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "News agencies, Lior Ben Ari",
          "source_url": "https://www.ynetnews.com/article/r1tq11e9cgl",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-30T14:32:59+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Qatar is mediating a compromise proposal between the U.S. and Iran, seeking to bridge Iranian demands to lift a naval blockade and U.S. demands for nuclear concessions, with officials describing talks as stuck.",
      "publisher": "News agencies, Lior Ben Ari",
      "published_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.ynetnews.com/article/r1tq11e9cgl"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract resolves via The New York Times confirmation of embassy reopening; the 4% price reflects how far short of normalization current talks remain."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "News agencies, Lior Ben Ari: ‘Trump is trapped’: Qatar pushes Iran compromise as US warns fighting",
      "url": "https://www.ynetnews.com/article/r1tq11e9cgl",
      "published_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-30T14:32:59+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-reopens-iran-embassy-kalshi-4-2026-09-30/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-reopens-iran-embassy-kalshi-4-2026-09-30.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}