{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101706",
  "record_slug": "us-russia-military-clash-by-2026-polymarket-4-2026-10-17",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-17T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "US-Russia military clash by year-end stays at long-shot odds",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 4%",
  "headline": "US-Russia military clash by 2026: Polymarket 4%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-207L4994P4",
  "target_event_slug": "us-x-russia-military-clash-by",
  "event_question": "Will there be a military clash between the US and Russia by 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x3373d3750e99d0fd60da842e688d89b71ad92d6bdd42c329f199add1c5bacb06",
    "question_raw": "US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.045,
    "volume_24h_usd": 128.372904,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T12:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract on a US-Russia military clash by 2026 sits at 4%, resolving via UMA oracle.",
    "Trump's stay on Russia sanctions, a de-escalatory signal, is consistent with the market's low probability; the pricing does not treat the sanctions freeze as a conflict trigger.",
    "A companion Polymarket contract (CM-EVT-QP1YL1BSS0) puts a Trump-Putin-Zelensky meeting before 2027 at 3%, suggesting diplomatic engagement is also priced as unlikely.",
    "Ukraine territorial concession by 2026 (CM-EVT-XP7FFT2MC9) sits at 6% on Polymarket, the cluster of low-single-digit probabilities across all resolution scenarios reflects broad market skepticism of near-term war or peace outcomes."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Will Weissert, Meg Kinnard",
          "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/russia-sanctions-trump-ukraine-e50c561ab805883bb4e484c092d8fadd",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-17T07:47:54+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Trump put on hold Russia sanctions he had recently signed into law, citing national interest, as Russia continued testing NATO allies.",
      "publisher": "Will Weissert, Meg Kinnard",
      "published_at": "2026-10-17T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/russia-sanctions-trump-ukraine-e50c561ab805883bb4e484c092d8fadd"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 4% on US-Russia military clash holds steady despite sanctions news; the market is not interpreting the freeze as a meaningful escalation signal."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Will Weissert, Meg Kinnard: Trump puts new Russia sanctions that he recently signed into law on ho",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/russia-sanctions-trump-ukraine-e50c561ab805883bb4e484c092d8fadd",
      "published_at": "2026-10-17T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-17T07:47:54+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-russia-military-clash-by-2026-polymarket-4-2026-10-17/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-russia-military-clash-by-2026-polymarket-4-2026-10-17.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}