{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071303",
  "record_slug": "us-strikes-8-countries-in-2026-kalshi-35-2026-07-13",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-13T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "US strikes 8-plus countries in 2026 prices below the threshold",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket ladder",
  "headline": "US strikes 8 countries in 2026: Kalshi 35%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-5855JBL478",
  "target_event_slug": "how-many-different-countries-will-the-us-strike-in-2026",
  "event_question": "market-implied level",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x713ab27f31c1d8080ea3b9c21c8a021609f8fcb7aad13a87b8b069265e7fdfda",
    "question_raw": "Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.352,
    "volume_24h_usd": 117.31988199999999,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder puts only 35% on the US striking 8 or more countries in 2026, with probability falling sharply above that level.",
    "Iran attacking Gulf states including Oman raises the count of nations drawn into the conflict, but the market still prices 8-country US strike threshold as unlikely.",
    "The distribution drops to 31% at 9 countries and 13% at 10, showing the market sees current escalation as bounded, not a regional cascade.",
    "Resolves via Kalshi's named resolution source; the strike count methodology and what qualifies as a distinct country engagement will be the key settlement edge."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "economictimes.indiatimes.com",
          "source_url": "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/iran-expands-attacks-on-gulf-states-after-us-strikes-says-strait-of-hormuz-closed/articleshow/132354201.cms",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-13T10:56:18+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Iran expanded attacks on Gulf states after US strikes and declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, with Iran targeting Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, and Oman.",
      "publisher": "economictimes.indiatimes.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-13T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/iran-expands-attacks-on-gulf-states-after-us-strikes-says-strait-of-hormuz-closed/articleshow/132354201.cms"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's ladder at 35% on 8 countries in 2026 signals markets are absorbing the Gulf escalation without pricing a broad multi-country US strike campaign."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "economictimes.indiatimes.com: Iran expands attacks on Gulf states after US strikes, says Strait of H",
      "url": "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/iran-expands-attacks-on-gulf-states-after-us-strikes-says-strait-of-hormuz-closed/articleshow/132354201.cms",
      "published_at": "2026-07-13T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-13T10:56:18+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-strikes-8-countries-in-2026-kalshi-35-2026-07-13/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-strikes-8-countries-in-2026-kalshi-35-2026-07-13.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}