{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026072203",
  "record_slug": "us-strikes-below-8-countries-in-2026-kalshi-ladder-58-2026-07-22",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-22T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "US strikes fewer than 8 countries in 2026 stays favored",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket ladder",
  "headline": "US strikes below 8 countries in 2026: Kalshi ladder 58%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-07-28",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-5855JBL478",
  "target_event_slug": "how-many-different-countries-will-the-us-strike-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Number of countries struck by US in 2026",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x713ab27f31c1d8080ea3b9c21c8a021609f8fcb7aad13a87b8b069265e7fdfda",
    "question_raw": "Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.419,
    "volume_24h_usd": 189.606267,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi ladder prices 42% that the US strikes 8 or more countries in 2026, with volume up 9,312% day over day, the highest activity signal in today's data set.",
    "Ongoing US strikes on Iran plus Houthi-linked Red Sea activity are driving fresh attention to this contract, reflected in the extraordinary volume surge.",
    "The sharp drop-off above 8 countries (42%) versus above 9 countries (30%) shows the market concentrating risk at exactly the 8-country threshold.",
    "Resolves via the named person or source; the counting methodology, what constitutes a distinct 'country struck', is the decisive settlement edge."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "kpbs.org",
          "source_url": "https://www.kpbs.org/news/international/2026/07/22/u-s-and-iranian-attacks-continue-as-tensions-mount-on-a-key-waterway-in-the-red-sea",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-23T10:16:46+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "US and Iranian attacks continued as tensions mounted on the Red Sea, with the conflict expanding to involve Houthi attacks on Saudi vessels.",
      "publisher": "kpbs.org",
      "published_at": "2026-07-22T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.kpbs.org/news/international/2026/07/22/u-s-and-iranian-attacks-continue-as-tensions-mount-on-a-key-waterway-in-the-red-sea"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "The 9,312% volume surge on the Kalshi 'countries struck' ladder is the strongest day-over-day activity signal in today's data, flagging live market attention to escalation scope."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "kpbs.org: U.S. and Iranian attacks continue as tensions mount on a key waterway",
      "url": "https://www.kpbs.org/news/international/2026/07/22/u-s-and-iranian-attacks-continue-as-tensions-mount-on-a-key-waterway-in-the-red-sea",
      "published_at": "2026-07-22T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-23T10:16:46+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-strikes-below-8-countries-in-2026-kalshi-ladder-58-2026-07-22/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-strikes-below-8-countries-in-2026-kalshi-ladder-58-2026-07-22.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}