{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026090402",
  "record_slug": "us-unemployment-peak-below-4-5-before-2027-kalshi-84-2026-09-04",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-04T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Peak unemployment below 4.5% stays heavily favored before 2027",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "US unemployment peak below 4.5% before 2027: Kalshi 84%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-06",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RBY62SKLC0",
  "target_event_slug": "kxu3max-27",
  "event_question": "Peak US unemployment rate before 2027",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXU3MAX-27-4.5",
    "question_raw": "How high will unemployment get before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.16,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-03-09T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices 84% on unemployment peaking below 4.5% before 2027, with only 7% on above 4.8% and 2% on above 5.0%.",
    "August's blowout payroll print is consistent with the market's heavy skew toward a contained labor market through year-end.",
    "Tail risk pricing is minimal: combined probability above 5.5% is under 18%, suggesting the market sees a recession-level spike as a long shot.",
    "Companion September U-3 ladder (CM-EVT-720DZC17Y9) is pinned near 4.1%, reinforcing the view that the labor market is stable, not deteriorating."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Lucia Mutikani",
          "source_url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/us-nonfarm-payrolls-surge-august-unemployment-rate-steady-41-2026-09-04/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-06T11:54:11+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "US nonfarm payrolls surged 162,000 in August, nearly triple the consensus forecast, with unemployment steady at 4.1%.",
      "publisher": "Lucia Mutikani",
      "published_at": "2026-09-04T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/us-nonfarm-payrolls-surge-august-unemployment-rate-steady-41-2026-09-04/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder resolves on BLS data; strike distribution shows almost no probability mass above 5%, despite tariff-era slowdown fears earlier in 2026."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Lucia Mutikani: US nonfarm payrolls surge in August; unemployment rate steady at 4.1%",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/us-nonfarm-payrolls-surge-august-unemployment-rate-steady-41-2026-09-04/",
      "published_at": "2026-09-04T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-06T11:54:11+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-unemployment-peak-below-4-5-before-2027-kalshi-84-2026-09-04/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-unemployment-peak-below-4-5-before-2027-kalshi-84-2026-09-04.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}