{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260629VS07",
  "record_slug": "us-x-cuba-economic-deal-by-july-31-2026-vol-14063",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-29T01:47:13+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "US-Cuba economic deal sits in deep skepticism territory",
  "telemetry": "10% · $14K 24h",
  "headline": "US-Cuba deal by Jul 31: 10% on $14K inflow",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-Y5QG71JGD0",
  "target_event_slug": "us-x-cuba-economic-deal-by",
  "event_question": "US x Cuba economic deal in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x789d388bafe08b6c17fefb96ec7ebadc6e997e0883eae5e4918354218e6dd52d",
    "question_raw": "US x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.1,
    "volume_24h_usd": 14063.861817,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 38935.97322699993,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices 10%, market treats a bilateral economic agreement by July 31 as a low-probability tail.",
    "$14K in 24h is 36% of all-time volume; fresh attention likely driven by diplomatic back-channel speculation.",
    "Structural barriers, sanctions law, Congressional opposition, anchor the market firmly toward no-deal.",
    "Resolves July 31, 2026, a month of runway, but 10% implies capital sees no credible near-term pathway."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 14063.861817
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: US x Cuba economic deal in 2026? (multi-deadline series",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/us-x-cuba-economic-deal-by",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-29T01:47:13+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-x-cuba-economic-deal-by-july-31-2026-vol-14063/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-x-cuba-economic-deal-by-july-31-2026-vol-14063.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}