{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061708",
  "record_slug": "usdc-hits-50-of-usdt-market-cap-in-2026-polymarket-53-2026-06-17",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-17T05:20:25.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "USDC at 50 percent of USDT market cap in 2026 holds at even odds",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 53%",
  "headline": "USDC hits 50% of USDT market cap in 2026: Polymarket 53%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-QZF44ZSYK3",
  "target_event_slug": "will-usdc-hit-50-of-usdt-market-cap-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x9397ebfe71585a4beb75b9562083f44d4335fa2858b7bc9a21d2e231ca4b454c",
    "question_raw": "Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.53,
    "volume_24h_usd": 131.44,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolution_source": "Coingecko",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices USDC reaching 50% of USDT market cap in 2026 at 53%, a near-even call.",
    "MiCA enforcement removing USDT from EU regulated venues is a structural tailwind for USDC, consistent with slightly-above-even Polymarket pricing.",
    "Russia whitelisting USDC (Story 36) adds a separate demand-side catalyst that markets may not have fully incorporated at time of pricing.",
    "Resolves via Coingecko market cap data; the multi-deadline series means earlier deadlines within 2026 count, adding urgency to the MiCA catalyst timing."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "yellow.com",
          "source_url": "https://yellow.com/news/usdt-loses-last-eu-foothold-mica-deadline-july-1",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-17T12:13:58+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "USDT loses its last EU regulated foothold as MiCA's transition period ends July 1, forcing unlicensed exchanges off the EU market.",
      "publisher": "yellow.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-17T05:20:25.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://yellow.com/news/usdt-loses-last-eu-foothold-mica-deadline-july-1"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket's 53% reflects a coin-flip market on USDC share gains; the MiCA July 1 deadline is the nearest hard catalyst for resolution."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "yellow.com: USDT Loses Its Last EU Foothold As MiCA Deadline Hits July 1 | Yellow.",
      "url": "https://yellow.com/news/usdt-loses-last-eu-foothold-mica-deadline-july-1",
      "published_at": "2026-06-17T05:20:25.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-17T12:13:58+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/usdc-hits-50-of-usdt-market-cap-in-2026-polymarket-53-2026-06-17/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/usdc-hits-50-of-usdt-market-cap-in-2026-polymarket-53-2026-06-17.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}