{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026083008",
  "record_slug": "venezuela-crude-output-above-1-2m-bpd-in-2026-kalshi-style-l-2026-08-30",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-30T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Venezuelan crude output reaching 1.2 million barrels a day stays favored",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket ladder",
  "headline": "Venezuela crude output above 1.2M bpd in 2026: Kalshi-style ladder 77%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-WL6DTZN086",
  "target_event_slug": "will-venezuelan-crude-oil-production-reach-barrels-per-day-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Venezuelan crude oil production 2026 (barrels per day)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x59bb2cc4b116c5137e858222c867638bcd78b236db7656adf93114fcdf62b902",
    "question_raw": "Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.3m barrels per day in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.13,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolution_source": "opec.org",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-28T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The ladder market prices a 77% probability that Venezuelan crude oil production reaches 1.2 million barrels per day in 2026, with only 13% above 1.3 million bpd.",
    "The US-Venezuela oil deal is broadly consistent with the high probability at the 1.2M bpd threshold, as US operational involvement could accelerate output; the market sees limited probability of production surging much further in the near term.",
    "The sharp drop from 77% at 1.2M bpd to 13% at 1.3M bpd signals the market views infrastructure and execution risk as real constraints on rapid production scaling.",
    "Resolution depends on an official Venezuelan or internationally recognized crude production data release for 2026; sovereignty disputes and data transparency could create settlement uncertainty."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Al Jazeera Staff",
          "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/30/venezuela-says-it-retains-sovereignty-following-us-oil-deal",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-30T13:30:27+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "The US and Venezuela announced a major oil deal giving the US significant access to Venezuelan oil reserves, with Venezuela's interim government asserting retained sovereignty.",
      "publisher": "Al Jazeera Staff",
      "published_at": "2026-08-30T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/30/venezuela-says-it-retains-sovereignty-following-us-oil-deal"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Ladder pricing concentrates strongly at the 1.2M bpd threshold; the deal announcement is consistent with elevated production probability but the market prices limited upside beyond that level."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Al Jazeera Staff: Venezuela says it retains ‘sovereignty’ following US oil deal | News |",
      "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/30/venezuela-says-it-retains-sovereignty-following-us-oil-deal",
      "published_at": "2026-08-30T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-30T13:30:27+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/venezuela-crude-output-above-1-2m-bpd-in-2026-kalshi-style-l-2026-08-30/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/venezuela-crude-output-above-1-2m-bpd-in-2026-kalshi-style-l-2026-08-30.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}