{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026083007",
  "record_slug": "venezuela-presidential-election-kalshi-36-2026-08-30",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-30T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Venezuela holding a presidential election stays near long-shot odds",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 36%",
  "headline": "Venezuela presidential election: Kalshi 36%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-F1G1G8F7P2",
  "target_event_slug": "kxelectvenezuela",
  "event_question": "When will Venezuela hold a presidential election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXELECTVENEZUELA-27JUN01",
    "question_raw": "Will Venezuela hold a presidential election before Jun 1, 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.36,
    "volume_24h_usd": 2.11,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Fox News",
    "resolves_at": "2027-06-01T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi puts 36% odds on Venezuela holding a presidential election, pricing the outcome as unlikely despite the new U.S.-Venezuela oil deal.",
    "Trump's diplomatic opening with Caracas is not yet translating into market confidence in democratic transition; the 36% print suggests skepticism about political reform as a deal condition.",
    "A companion Polymarket contract (CM-EVT-M49M1D05V5) puts only 9% on Trump endorsing opposition leader Maria Corina Machado for Venezuelan president, indicating markets do not expect the deal to come with a democratic push.",
    "Kalshi resolves via Fox News confirmation of an election; the contract's below-50% pricing implies markets view the Maduro government retaining power as the base case regardless of the oil agreement."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "TIME",
          "source_url": "https://time.com/article/2026/08/29/trump-says-his-venezuela-oil-deal-will-lower-gas-prices-but-when-/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-31T15:47:21+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Trump announced what he called the biggest oil deal in history with Venezuela and pledged it would lower U.S. gas prices, but timing and implementation details remain unclear.",
      "publisher": "TIME",
      "published_at": "2026-08-30T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://time.com/article/2026/08/29/trump-says-his-venezuela-oil-deal-will-lower-gas-prices-but-when-/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 36% on a Venezuelan election resolves via Fox News; the companion Polymarket Machado contract at 9% confirms markets are pricing an oil-for-access deal, not a regime-change deal."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "TIME: Trump Promises His Venezuela Oil Deal Will Lower Gas Prices. But When?",
      "url": "https://time.com/article/2026/08/29/trump-says-his-venezuela-oil-deal-will-lower-gas-prices-but-when-/",
      "published_at": "2026-08-30T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-31T15:47:21+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/venezuela-presidential-election-kalshi-36-2026-08-30/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/venezuela-presidential-election-kalshi-36-2026-08-30.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}