{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260819VS05",
  "record_slug": "who-will-win-alaska-s-top-four-primary-f-vol-39746",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-19T08:32:13+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Alaska top-four governor primary winner priced as certain",
  "telemetry": "100% · $40K 24h",
  "headline": "AK governor top-four winner: 100% on $40K surge",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "resolved",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": "YES",
    "outcome_basis": "resolution_log",
    "final_price": 1,
    "resolved_at": "2026-08-26"
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-D03FJ4YFW7",
  "target_event_slug": "kxgovakprimary-26",
  "event_question": "Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXGOVAKPRIMARY-26-BWIL",
    "question_raw": "Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?",
    "current_price": 0.999,
    "volume_24h_usd": 39746.3,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 57544.01,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolves_at": "2026-08-31T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "One candidate priced at 100% to advance from Alaska's top-four gubernatorial primary on Kalshi.",
    "$40K in 24h is 69% of all-time volume, the single largest session by share for this contract.",
    "Alaska's August primary calendar and today's date suggest results are driving the certainty print.",
    "Resolves on official Alaska Division of Elections certifying the top-four primary results."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 39746.3
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxgovakprimary-26",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-19T08:32:13+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/who-will-win-alaska-s-top-four-primary-f-vol-39746/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/who-will-win-alaska-s-top-four-primary-f-vol-39746.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}