{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260819VS07",
  "record_slug": "who-will-win-the-2026-ca-14-special-elec-vol-49520",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-19T08:32:13+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "CA-14 special election winner trading near certainty",
  "telemetry": "97% · $50K 24h",
  "headline": "CA-14 special election winner: 97% on $50K spike",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "resolved",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": "YES",
    "outcome_basis": "resolution_log",
    "final_price": 1,
    "resolved_at": "2026-08-21"
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-T3PBGQWXX8",
  "target_event_slug": "kxca14swinner-26",
  "event_question": "Will a special election be held for California's 14th congressional district before the 2026 general election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXCA14SWINNER-26-AWAH",
    "question_raw": "Who will win the 2026 CA-14 special election?",
    "current_price": 0.97,
    "volume_24h_usd": 49520.26,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 121585.29,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices the leading CA-14 special election candidate at 97%, high conviction, small residual risk.",
    "$50K in 24h accounts for 41% of all-time volume, a strong single-session concentration.",
    "California special elections can produce late mail-ballot shifts; the 3% discount reflects that tail risk.",
    "Resolves on California's certified results for the 2026 CA-14 congressional special election."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 49520.26
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will a special election be held for California's 14th c",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxca14swinner-26",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-19T08:32:13+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/who-will-win-the-2026-ca-14-special-elec-vol-49520/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/who-will-win-the-2026-ca-14-special-elec-vol-49520.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}