{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260914VS01",
  "record_slug": "who-will-win-the-next-swedish-general-el-vol-10500",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-14T14:41:37+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Sweden election odds hold near certainty on heavy trading",
  "telemetry": "97% · $11K 24h",
  "headline": "Swedish election winner: 97% on $10K volume burst",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-16",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-G35MQ80T62",
  "target_event_slug": "kxswedenparli-26",
  "event_question": "Will the Swedish Social Democrats win the most seats in the next Swedish general election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXSWEDENPARLI-26-SDP",
    "question_raw": "Who will win the next Swedish general election?",
    "current_price": 0.972,
    "volume_24h_usd": 10500.99,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 32854.78,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolves_at": "2026-09-30T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices the leading outcome at 97%, the market is treating this as a near-resolved question, not a live contest.",
    "24h volume of $10K is 32% of the contract's all-time total, an unusually dense single-day share for a settled-looking market.",
    "High volume into a near-certain price suggests traders are either locking in late positions or testing whether any residual 3% gap can be closed.",
    "Resolves on the official result of Sweden's next general election."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 10500.99
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will the Swedish Social Democrats win the most seats in",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxswedenparli-26",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-14T14:41:37+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/who-will-win-the-next-swedish-general-el-vol-10500/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/who-will-win-the-next-swedish-general-el-vol-10500.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}