{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20261009VS04",
  "record_slug": "who-will-win-the-nobel-peace-prize-vol-12645",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-09T07:49:05+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Traders back a non-Navalnaya Nobel outcome at 40% on Kalshi",
  "telemetry": "40% · $13K 24h",
  "headline": "Nobel Peace Prize field alt: 40% on $12.6K volume",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "resolved",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": "NO",
    "outcome_basis": "resolution_log",
    "final_price": 0,
    "resolved_at": "2026-10-09"
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-2G1CVPVX54",
  "target_event_slug": "kxnobelpeace-26",
  "event_question": "Will the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize be awarded by January 1, 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXNOBELPEACE-27-MKUL",
    "question_raw": "Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize?",
    "current_price": 0.4,
    "volume_24h_usd": 12645.68,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 36205.95,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi's alternate Nobel contract prices non-Navalnaya outcomes collectively at 40%, reflecting meaningful residual uncertainty in the field.",
    "35% of all-time volume in 24h, lighter than the 82% spike in Spike 1, but still active given proximity to announcement.",
    "Divergence across Kalshi Nobel contracts implies traders are hedging between Navalnaya and the broader field, not converging on a single name.",
    "Resolves on the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize announcement."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 12645.68
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize be awarded by January 1",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxnobelpeace-26",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-09T07:49:05+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/who-will-win-the-nobel-peace-prize-vol-12645/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/who-will-win-the-nobel-peace-prize-vol-12645.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}