{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026081108",
  "record_slug": "wi-dem-gov-primary-2nd-place-called-kalshi-1-2026-08-11",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-11T14:06:40.503Z",
  "semantic_title": "Wisconsin Democratic governor primary second place stays near certain to be decided",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 1%",
  "headline": "WI Dem Gov primary 2nd place called: Kalshi 1%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "resolved",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": "NO",
    "outcome_basis": "resolution_log",
    "final_price": 0,
    "resolved_at": "2026-08-26"
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-C2VSFP4N78",
  "target_event_slug": "kxwidgov2nd-govwinomd26-2",
  "event_question": "Will the second-place finisher in the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary be decided by August 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXWIDGOV2ND-GOVWINOMD26-2-DCRO",
    "question_raw": "Will David Crowley finish 2nd in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary?",
    "current_price": 0.01,
    "volume_24h_usd": 61.37,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in geography",
    "resolves_at": "2027-08-11T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi contract prices only a 1% chance the second-place finisher in the Wisconsin Democratic governor primary remains undecided past the certification deadline.",
    "A too-close-to-call race between Hong and Crowley is in tension with that near-certainty; a contested count could push toward the 1% tail.",
    "The near-zero price implies markets expect a clean, called result even in a tight race, relying on Wisconsin's established certification process.",
    "Resolves via the official Wisconsin election authority responsible for certifying results; a recount request in a very tight margin is the key tail risk."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Garrett Downs",
          "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/11/minnesota-wisconsin-primaries-hong-flanagan-craig-run-in-key-races.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-12T09:07:43+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Francesca Hong and David Crowley are locked in a too-close-to-call Democratic gubernatorial primary in Wisconsin, with progressives and moderates in a tight race.",
      "publisher": "Garrett Downs",
      "published_at": "2026-08-11T14:06:40.503Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/11/minnesota-wisconsin-primaries-hong-flanagan-craig-run-in-key-races.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi is the venue; the 1% price reflects strong prior that even close Wisconsin primaries resolve without prolonged certification disputes."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Garrett Downs: Democrats clash again in Minnesota and Wisconsin primaries as big midt",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/11/minnesota-wisconsin-primaries-hong-flanagan-craig-run-in-key-races.html",
      "published_at": "2026-08-11T14:06:40.503Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-12T09:07:43+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/wi-dem-gov-primary-2nd-place-called-kalshi-1-2026-08-11/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/wi-dem-gov-primary-2nd-place-called-kalshi-1-2026-08-11.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}