{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20261001VS02",
  "record_slug": "will-above-70000-jobs-be-added-in-septem-vol-14768",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-01T07:48:14+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Fresh volume backs September payrolls clearing 70K jobs",
  "telemetry": "66% · $15K 24h",
  "headline": "Sept jobs above 70K: 66% on $15K Kalshi surge",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-01",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-MZQH465PC3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxpayrolls-26sep",
  "event_question": "Will the September 2026 jobs report show positive job growth?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXPAYROLLS-26SEP-T70000",
    "question_raw": "Will above 70000 jobs be added in September 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.66,
    "volume_24h_usd": 14768.23,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 21824.48,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices September 2026 nonfarm payrolls above 70K at 66%, a clear lean toward a solid print.",
    "68% of all-time contract volume ($15K of $22K lifetime) arrived in 24h ahead of the data release.",
    "Pre-release positioning surge is classic, ADP, jobless claims, or ISM data likely moved the needle.",
    "Resolves on the official BLS September 2026 employment report, due imminently."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 14768.23
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will the September 2026 jobs report show positive job g",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxpayrolls-26sep",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-01T07:48:14+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-above-70000-jobs-be-added-in-septem-vol-14768/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-above-70000-jobs-be-added-in-septem-vol-14768.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}