{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260818VS04",
  "record_slug": "will-alexander-vindman-be-the-democratic-vol-17875",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-18T08:31:22+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Vindman FL Senate Democratic nom holds firm at 91%",
  "telemetry": "91% · $18K 24h",
  "headline": "Vindman FL Dem Senate nom: 91% on $18K surge",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "resolved",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": "NO",
    "outcome_basis": "resolution_log",
    "final_price": 0,
    "resolved_at": "2026-08-19"
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-M02ZJWQWV9",
  "target_event_slug": "kxsenatefld-26",
  "event_question": "Will the Florida Democratic Senate nominee be determined by the 2026 general election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXSENATEFLD-26-AVIN",
    "question_raw": "Will Alexander Vindman be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Florida?",
    "current_price": 0.91,
    "volume_24h_usd": 17875.19,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 49213.47,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices Vindman at 91%, strong favorite for the Democratic Senate nomination in Florida.",
    "36% of all-time volume in 24h ($17.9K), proportionally the largest daily session this contract has seen.",
    "Surge likely driven by the same Florida primary event catalyzing volume across all FL contracts today.",
    "Resolves on Florida Democratic Party's certified Senate nominee."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 17875.19
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will the Florida Democratic Senate nominee be determine",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxsenatefld-26",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-18T08:31:22+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-alexander-vindman-be-the-democratic-vol-17875/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-alexander-vindman-be-the-democratic-vol-17875.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}