{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20261031VS05",
  "record_slug": "will-an-independent-win-the-nebraska-sen-vol-300256",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-31T14:16:49+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Betting picks up on an independent Nebraska Senate upset at 25%",
  "telemetry": "25% · $300K 24h",
  "headline": "Nebraska Senate independent: 25% on $300K Polymarket flow",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "past_due",
    "as_of": "2026-11-04",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-CY3W5Z2793",
  "target_event_slug": "nebraska-senate-election-winner",
  "event_question": "Nebraska Senate Election Winner  ",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x5554740293afa7aafd5fed10fd2de43a898e2884c1f98bd65185e703f371b9db",
    "question_raw": "Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.25,
    "volume_24h_usd": 300256.24702699995,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 760707.693021,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices an independent Nebraska Senate win at 25%, a meaningful long-shot.",
    "$300K in 24h equals 39% of all-time contract volume, the second-highest all-time share here.",
    "With the GOP leg at 76%, the market implies a near-zero Democratic path and an active independent race.",
    "Resolves on Nebraska 2026 Senate result; independent candidate fundraising or polling could reprice fast."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 300256.24702699995
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Nebraska Senate Election Winner  ",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/nebraska-senate-election-winner",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-31T14:16:49+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-an-independent-win-the-nebraska-sen-vol-300256/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-an-independent-win-the-nebraska-sen-vol-300256.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}