{
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  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-01T15:04:01+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Traders back Anthropic to lead AI by December",
  "telemetry": "53% · $71K 24h",
  "headline": "Anthropic best AI model Dec 2026: 53% on $71K",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-01",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-ZQ0Y8QXZ32",
  "target_event_slug": "which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-2026",
  "event_question": "Which company will have the best AI model by the end of 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xe944062b6d02b59c5f6c39cd4d35538918053c0c7e5f8d7fa0ab1d4edb9baa46",
    "question_raw": "Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.53,
    "volume_24h_usd": 70850.60328699998,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 264377.945736,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices Anthropic as a narrow favorite at 53% to hold the top AI model ranking at December 2026.",
    "24h volume of $71K, the largest single-day flow in this batch, represents 27% of all-time, showing sustained conviction.",
    "Volume likely triggered by a recent model release, evaluation result, or capability announcement shifting relative standing.",
    "Resolves December 2026; a 53% price implies this is still genuinely contested, not a runaway consensus."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 70850.60328699998
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Which company will have the best AI model by the end of",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-2026",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-01T15:04:01+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
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    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-anthropic-have-the-best-ai-model-at-vol-70850/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-anthropic-have-the-best-ai-model-at-vol-70850.json"
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  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
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