{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG20260915VS00",
  "record_slug": "will-any-ai-model-reach-1520-overall-are-vol-46185",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-15T13:06:46+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Traders back AI hitting 1520 Arena Score by Sept 30",
  "telemetry": "77% · $46K 24h",
  "headline": "AI Arena 1520: 77% on $46K volume surge",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-16",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-61DHJLFR26",
  "target_event_slug": "will-any-ai-model-reach-overall-arena-score-by-september-30",
  "event_question": "AI model highest Overall Arena Score, September 30, 2026",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x6a98ff5d9296b7130ba3c6d5978e0777b98f0550341706bef86f7eb390def16b",
    "question_raw": "Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.77,
    "volume_24h_usd": 46185.692593000014,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 141244.153645,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices a 77% chance any model clears the 1520 Overall Arena Score threshold before month-end.",
    "24h volume of $46K equals 33% of all-time handle, a sharp single-day concentration with two weeks left.",
    "Fresh activity likely tracks a recent benchmark release or lab announcement putting the threshold within reach.",
    "Resolves Sept 30, 2026, the tight window compresses risk and draws attention as the deadline nears."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 46185.692593000014
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: AI model highest Overall Arena Score, September 30, 202",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-any-ai-model-reach-overall-arena-score-by-september-30",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-15T13:06:46+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-any-ai-model-reach-1520-overall-are-vol-46185/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-any-ai-model-reach-1520-overall-are-vol-46185.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
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  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
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