{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20261020VS05",
  "record_slug": "will-bank-of-canada-hike-rates-by-0bps-a-vol-23920",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-20T07:48:28+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Bank of Canada October hold bets run neck-and-neck at 39%",
  "telemetry": "39% · $24K 24h",
  "headline": "BoC holds rates Oct 2026: 39% on $24K Kalshi volume",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RCX0GXDHW8",
  "target_event_slug": "kxcbdecisioncanada-26oct",
  "event_question": "Will the Bank of Canada make a decision in October 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H0",
    "question_raw": "Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.39,
    "volume_24h_usd": 23920.47,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 75274.31,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolves_at": "2026-10-28T13:29:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices 39% on the Bank of Canada holding rates unchanged at its October 2026 meeting, slightly trailing the hike scenario.",
    "$24K in 24h is 32% of all-time volume, moving in tandem with the 25bps hike contract for a clear two-sided rate debate.",
    "39% hold vs. 62% hike on the companion contract implies the market has a lean but not conviction toward a 25bps move.",
    "Resolves on the Bank of Canada October 2026 rate decision; spread is narrow enough that one data print could flip positioning."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 23920.47
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will the Bank of Canada make a decision in October 2026",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcbdecisioncanada-26oct",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-20T07:48:28+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-bank-of-canada-hike-rates-by-0bps-a-vol-23920/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-bank-of-canada-hike-rates-by-0bps-a-vol-23920.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}