{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260704VS00",
  "record_slug": "will-benjamin-netanyahu-be-the-next-lead-vol-2388254",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-04T10:05:37+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Traders write off Netanyahu as next leader out before 2027",
  "telemetry": "0% · $2.4M 24h",
  "headline": "Netanyahu next out: 0% on $2.4M surge",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-2FLCV9PNS4",
  "target_event_slug": "next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-no-orban",
  "event_question": "Will a current leader lose power before 2027, excluding Viktor Orbán?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x1cd1a66943b214de90027ce888621fc4e53f5c46351809e51dbad0635b7fe9b7",
    "question_raw": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.002,
    "volume_24h_usd": 2388254.3195,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 3604473.682311,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Price at 0%, market assigns near-zero probability Netanyahu exits power before 2027.",
    "24h volume $2.4M is 66% of all-time activity, signaling a concentrated single-session conviction flush.",
    "Fresh capital may be absorbing or closing speculative positions opened around coalition pressure or legal proceedings.",
    "Contract resolves if Netanyahu is first among tracked leaders to lose office before Jan 1 2027."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 2388254.3195
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will a current leader lose power before 2027, excluding",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-no-orban",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-04T10:05:37+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-benjamin-netanyahu-be-the-next-lead-vol-2388254/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-benjamin-netanyahu-be-the-next-lead-vol-2388254.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}