{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20261027VS04",
  "record_slug": "will-benjamin-netanyahu-become-prime-min-vol-144308",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-27T07:49:11+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Netanyahu PM return trades at 25% on fresh volume",
  "telemetry": "25% · $144K 24h",
  "headline": "Netanyahu PM Israel: 25% on $144K surge",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-27",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-XQ3FKH3GZ5",
  "target_event_slug": "kxisraelpm-26oct27",
  "event_question": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu be Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXISRAELPM-26OCT27-BNET",
    "question_raw": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?",
    "current_price": 0.25,
    "volume_24h_usd": 144308.01,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 408021.82,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolves_at": "2027-10-27T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "25% price places Netanyahu at the low end of live contention for a return as PM after the 2026 election.",
    "$144K in 24h is 35% of all-time Kalshi volume, meaningful re-engagement as the election approaches.",
    "Surge alongside the Eizenkot contract suggests traders are actively repricing the PM race across multiple candidates simultaneously.",
    "Resolves on who holds the PM office following the 2026 Israeli legislative result."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 144308.01
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will Benjamin Netanyahu be Prime Minister of Israel aft",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxisraelpm-26oct27",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-27T07:49:11+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-benjamin-netanyahu-become-prime-min-vol-144308/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-benjamin-netanyahu-become-prime-min-vol-144308.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}