{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20261028VS02",
  "record_slug": "will-benjamin-netanyahu-become-prime-min-vol-659343",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-28T15:35:02+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Netanyahu PM via 2026 election stays a long shot at 26%",
  "telemetry": "26% · $659K 24h",
  "headline": "Netanyahu 2026 election PM: 26% on $659K",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-28",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-XQ3FKH3GZ5",
  "target_event_slug": "kxisraelpm-26oct27",
  "event_question": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu be Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXISRAELPM-26OCT27-BNET",
    "question_raw": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?",
    "current_price": 0.26,
    "volume_24h_usd": 659343.06,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 1213715.23,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolves_at": "2027-10-27T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices Netanyahu winning PM specifically via the 2026 Israeli election at 26%, a clear underdog read.",
    "24h volume of $659K is 54% of all-time, the majority of this contract's lifetime activity hit in one session.",
    "Surge mirrors the Polymarket Netanyahu spike, suggesting coordinated fresh attention across venues on the same underlying event.",
    "Resolves on Netanyahu being named PM as a direct result of the 2026 election outcome."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 659343.06
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will Benjamin Netanyahu be Prime Minister of Israel aft",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxisraelpm-26oct27",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-28T15:35:02+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-benjamin-netanyahu-become-prime-min-vol-659343/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-benjamin-netanyahu-become-prime-min-vol-659343.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}