{
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  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-04T10:33:57+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Mizusawa locks in as Virginia GOP Senate pick at 94%",
  "telemetry": "94% · $11K 24h",
  "headline": "Mizusawa VA Senate GOP nominee: 94% on $11K",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-08-04",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-ZF0DQ0MY94",
  "target_event_slug": "kxsenatevar-26",
  "event_question": "Will the Virginia Republican Senate nominee be determined before the 2026 election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXSENATEVAR-26-BMIZ",
    "question_raw": "Will Bert Mizusawa be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Virginia?",
    "current_price": 0.94,
    "volume_24h_usd": 10834.24,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 32660.49,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "At 94%, Kalshi treats Mizusawa's Republican Senate nomination in Virginia as effectively decided.",
    "24h volume of $10.8K is 33% of all-time, a sharp single-session share for a near-resolved contract.",
    "Fresh volume at this price level suggests late entrants are closing out opposing positions rather than opening new ones.",
    "Resolves on the certified 2026 Virginia Republican Senate primary result."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 10834.24
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will the Virginia Republican Senate nominee be determin",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxsenatevar-26",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-04T10:33:57+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
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    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-bert-mizusawa-be-the-republican-nom-vol-10834.json"
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  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
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