{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260821VS01",
  "record_slug": "will-btc-trimmed-mean-be-above-77500-00-vol-134575",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-21T08:35:56+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "BTC above $77.5K by Aug 31 draws heavy backing at 82%",
  "telemetry": "82% · $135K 24h",
  "headline": "BTC above $77.5K by Aug 31: 82% on $135K",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "resolved",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": "YES",
    "outcome_basis": "resolution_log",
    "final_price": 1,
    "resolved_at": "2026-08-21"
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-91N8R2ZK22",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbtcmaxmon-btc-26aug31",
  "event_question": "BTC trimmed mean price, August 31, 2026",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26AUG31-7750000",
    "question_raw": "Will BTC trimmed mean be above $77500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Aug 31, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.82,
    "volume_24h_usd": 134575.37,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 206706.02,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolves_at": "2026-09-08T03:59:59Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "At 82%, Kalshi traders assign strong probability Bitcoin holds above $77.5K through month-end.",
    "24h volume of $135K represents 65% of all-time, the bulk of this contract's liquidity landed today.",
    "With 10 days to expiry and Bitcoin currently well above the strike, fresh volume may reflect confirmation-buying or late hedging.",
    "Resolves 11:59 PM ET Aug 31 on trimmed-mean price; a sharp BTC drawdown is the primary scenario threatening this outcome."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 134575.37
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: BTC trimmed mean price, August 31, 2026",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxbtcmaxmon-btc-26aug31",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-21T08:35:56+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-btc-trimmed-mean-be-above-77500-00-vol-134575/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-btc-trimmed-mean-be-above-77500-00-vol-134575.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}