{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260818VS06",
  "record_slug": "will-catalina-lauf-be-the-republican-nom-vol-15122",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-18T08:31:22+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Lauf FL-19 GOP nomination priced in at 90%",
  "telemetry": "90% · $15K 24h",
  "headline": "Lauf FL-19 GOP nom: 90% on $15K volume rise",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "resolved",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": "NO",
    "outcome_basis": "resolution_log",
    "final_price": 0,
    "resolved_at": "2026-08-19"
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-WPXJQDV350",
  "target_event_slug": "fl-19-republican-primary-winner",
  "event_question": "Will Ron DeSantis win the FL-19 Republican Primary?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xf43d99c0b796e0e5226dffa31c71c9fab943e3f79c0182c144eea93dc6b77ae2",
    "question_raw": "Will Catalina Lauf be the Republican nominee for FL-19?",
    "current_price": 0.9,
    "volume_24h_usd": 15122.697801,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 58041.97335000001,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-08-18T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices Lauf at 90%, strong favorite but 10% residual uncertainty remains unresolved.",
    "26% of all-time volume in 24h ($15K), contract's most active day, consistent with Florida primary day flow.",
    "Part of the broad Florida primary resolution wave across multiple congressional and statewide contracts.",
    "Resolves on certified Republican nominee for Florida's 19th congressional district."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 15122.697801
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will Ron DeSantis win the FL-19 Republican Primary?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/fl-19-republican-primary-winner",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-18T08:31:22+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-catalina-lauf-be-the-republican-nom-vol-15122/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-catalina-lauf-be-the-republican-nom-vol-15122.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}