{
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  "record_slug": "will-cdu-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2026-vol-17424",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-29T01:47:13+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "CDU Berlin plurality faces contested capital with even odds",
  "telemetry": "42% · $17K 24h",
  "headline": "CDU tops Berlin 2026 state vote: 42% on $17K",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-99FRTX6C37",
  "target_event_slug": "berlin-state-election-winner",
  "event_question": "Will the SPD win the most seats in the Berlin state election by 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x71a21eab87c301a53f2f33fad4dca7a1e7da8911b847c82ca37ed49d859a17a0",
    "question_raw": "Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?",
    "current_price": 0.42,
    "volume_24h_usd": 17424.840384000003,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 58645.281993999975,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-09-20T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices 42%, market assigns CDU a slight plurality lead but far from a certainty in Berlin.",
    "$17K in 24h is 30% of all-time volume; attention building ahead of Berlin state election campaigning.",
    "SPD and Greens competitive in Berlin polling; 42% reflects genuine uncertainty in a historically contested city-state.",
    "Resolves on official Berlin state election results; date not yet fixed within 2026 calendar."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 17424.840384000003
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will the SPD win the most seats in the Berlin state ele",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/berlin-state-election-winner",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-29T01:47:13+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-cdu-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2026-vol-17424/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-cdu-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2026-vol-17424.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
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  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
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