{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260715VS00",
  "record_slug": "will-china-gdp-growth-in-q2-2026-be-betw-vol-35776",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-15T10:00:41+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "China Q2 GDP 4.3, 4.6% band locked in at full conviction",
  "telemetry": "100% · $36K 24h",
  "headline": "China Q2 GDP 4.3, 4.6% band: 100% on $35K surge",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "resolved",
    "as_of": "2026-07-21",
    "outcome": "YES",
    "outcome_basis": "resolution_log",
    "final_price": 1,
    "resolved_at": "2026-07-16"
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-ZX9NJMKMD0",
  "target_event_slug": "china-gdp-growth-yy-in-q2-2026",
  "event_question": "Will China's year-over-year GDP growth in Q2 2026 be above 5%?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x7ccef198fac90ac8a29aed052fc8c5c08b16bff84b3b4ded112248a9d8f885c2",
    "question_raw": "Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?",
    "current_price": 0.996,
    "volume_24h_usd": 35776.64350300001,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 64882.21696699998,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-07-16T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Market prices 100% certainty the 4.3, 4.6% band captured official Q2 GDP, contract effectively settled.",
    "24h volume of $35,777 equals 55% of all-time handle, signaling a decisive resolution flush.",
    "China's Q2 2026 GDP release has likely landed within the band, collapsing residual uncertainty.",
    "Resolves YES; remaining flow is arb-driven redemption or hedging of correlated macro positions."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 35776.64350300001
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will China's year-over-year GDP growth in Q2 2026 be ab",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/china-gdp-growth-yy-in-q2-2026",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-15T10:00:41+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-china-gdp-growth-in-q2-2026-be-betw-vol-35776/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-china-gdp-growth-in-q2-2026-be-betw-vol-35776.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
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