{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260828VS05",
  "record_slug": "will-chris-pappas-be-the-democratic-nomi-vol-10047",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-28T19:52:39+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Pappas NH Democratic nomination steady at 93% on Polymarket",
  "telemetry": "93% · $10K 24h",
  "headline": "Pappas NH Dem Senate: 93% on $10K Polymarket",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-HY8R70V952",
  "target_event_slug": "new-hampshire-democratic-senate-primary-winner",
  "event_question": "Will the Democratic Party winner of the New Hampshire Senate primary be determined by the 2026 primary election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xf78be595172a9db8c6323e1927aa44b2fa2d52805d97bf4a9664593b42326534",
    "question_raw": "Will Chris Pappas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?",
    "current_price": 0.932,
    "volume_24h_usd": 10047.440818000001,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 32401.085523,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-09-08T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "93% on Polymarket mirrors Kalshi's 94%, cross-venue convergence strengthens the Pappas nomination read.",
    "31% of all-time Polymarket handle today, suggesting renewed but smaller-scale confirmation trading.",
    "Spread between venues is within rounding, no exploitable arb, just parallel conviction.",
    "Resolves on New Hampshire primary certification, same trigger as the Kalshi contract."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 10047.440818000001
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will the Democratic Party winner of the New Hampshire S",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/new-hampshire-democratic-senate-primary-winner",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-28T19:52:39+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-chris-pappas-be-the-democratic-nomi-vol-10047/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-chris-pappas-be-the-democratic-nomi-vol-10047.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}