{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260812VS03",
  "record_slug": "will-cpi-rise-more-than-0-0-in-july-202-vol-171057",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-12T09:08:32+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Odds favor a positive July CPI print on fresh volume",
  "telemetry": "63% · $171K 24h",
  "headline": "July CPI above 0.0%: 63% on $171K inflow",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "resolved",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": "YES",
    "outcome_basis": "resolution_log",
    "final_price": 1,
    "resolved_at": "2026-08-12"
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-HVKDYMRT39",
  "target_event_slug": "kxcpi-26jul",
  "event_question": "CPI month-over-month change, July 2026",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26JUL-T0.0",
    "question_raw": "Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in July 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.63,
    "volume_24h_usd": 171057.4,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 299313.59,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-11T13:56:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices a positive July CPI monthly change at 63%, modest inflation lean, not a strong conviction.",
    "$171K in 24h is 57% of all-time volume, suggesting this market is relatively new and drawing first-time positioning.",
    "Trading ahead of the August CPI release date implies desks are laying risk before the data drop.",
    "Resolves on the BLS July 2026 CPI monthly change figure."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 171057.4
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: CPI month-over-month change, July 2026",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcpi-26jul",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-12T09:08:32+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-cpi-rise-more-than-0-0-in-july-202-vol-171057/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-cpi-rise-more-than-0-0-in-july-202-vol-171057.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}