{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20261015VS07",
  "record_slug": "will-cpi-rise-more-than-0-3-in-october-vol-10008",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-15T07:48:38+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Traders back CPI staying under 0.3% in October 2026",
  "telemetry": "19% · $10K 24h",
  "headline": "CPI >0.3% Oct '26: 19% on $10K, 81% of all-time",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-N58KJP0K82",
  "target_event_slug": "kxcpi-26oct",
  "event_question": "Will CPI be released in October?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26OCT-T0.3",
    "question_raw": "Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in October 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.19,
    "volume_24h_usd": 10008.12,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 12376.62,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-09T14:56:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "At 19%, Kalshi traders assign low but non-trivial odds that October 2026 CPI prints above 0.3% month-over-month.",
    "$10K in 24h is 81% of all-time volume, nearly the entirety of this contract's trading in one session.",
    "An 81% all-time share in one day almost certainly reflects a CPI-adjacent data release or Fed communication sharpening near-term inflation expectations.",
    "Contract resolves on the official October 2026 CPI monthly change reading."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 10008.12
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will CPI be released in October?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcpi-26oct",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-15T07:48:38+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-cpi-rise-more-than-0-3-in-october-vol-10008/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-cpi-rise-more-than-0-3-in-october-vol-10008.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}