{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20261008VS02",
  "record_slug": "will-cpi-rise-more-than-0-5-in-septembe-vol-52184",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-08T07:49:04+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "September CPI above 0.5% stays a coin-flip bet",
  "telemetry": "48% · $52K 24h",
  "headline": "CPI +0.5% Sept: 48% as volume hits 25% ATH",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "resolved",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": "YES",
    "outcome_basis": "resolution_log",
    "final_price": 1,
    "resolved_at": "2026-10-14"
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-F9NPW9F1V9",
  "target_event_slug": "kxcpi-26sep",
  "event_question": "Will CPI in September be above expectations?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26SEP-T0.5",
    "question_raw": "Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in September 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.48,
    "volume_24h_usd": 52184.15,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 205250.26,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-13T13:56:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices a September CPI print above 0.5% month-on-month at 48%, effectively a coin-flip on hot inflation.",
    "24h volume of $52.2K represents 25% of all-time, a clean landmark share arriving as the release window nears.",
    "Attention at near-50% odds signals genuine two-sided uncertainty: no consensus on whether energy or shelter drives a big print.",
    "Resolves on September 2026 BLS CPI release; 48% implies the market sees the 0.5% threshold as a live risk."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 52184.15
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will CPI in September be above expectations?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcpi-26sep",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-08T07:49:04+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-cpi-rise-more-than-0-5-in-septembe-vol-52184/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-cpi-rise-more-than-0-5-in-septembe-vol-52184.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}