{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20261007VS00",
  "record_slug": "will-cpi-rise-more-than-0-5-in-septembe-vol-71198",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-07T15:02:49+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "CPI above 0.5% in September sits at a coin-flip",
  "telemetry": "49% · $71K 24h",
  "headline": "Sept CPI >0.5%: 49% on $71K volume surge",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "resolved",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": "YES",
    "outcome_basis": "resolution_log",
    "final_price": 1,
    "resolved_at": "2026-10-14"
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-F9NPW9F1V9",
  "target_event_slug": "kxcpi-26sep",
  "event_question": "Will CPI in September be above expectations?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26SEP-T0.5",
    "question_raw": "Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in September 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.49,
    "volume_24h_usd": 71198.97,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 160315.09,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-13T13:56:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices the September CPI overshoot at 49%, effectively dead even, implying no consensus on a hot print.",
    "24h volume of $71K is 44% of all-time handle, marking this as the sharpest single-day interest the contract has seen.",
    "September CPI data is imminent, drawing traders to stake out positions before the release resolves the contract.",
    "Resolves on official BLS September 2026 CPI print; a >0.5% month-over-month rise needed for YES."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 71198.97
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will CPI in September be above expectations?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcpi-26sep",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-07T15:02:49+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-cpi-rise-more-than-0-5-in-septembe-vol-71198/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-cpi-rise-more-than-0-5-in-septembe-vol-71198.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}