{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20261005VS06",
  "record_slug": "will-david-lisnard-advance-to-the-second-vol-30272",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-05T16:45:18+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Lisnard French presidential second-round odds hold at 16%",
  "telemetry": "16% · $30K 24h",
  "headline": "Lisnard French pres. R2: 16% on $30K",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-GZ9M6X8G64",
  "target_event_slug": "next-french-presidential-election-who-will-advance-to-the-2nd-round",
  "event_question": "Will Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French Presidential Election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xcc100766ebc6f6f29b53aed3867d6b4457f28681878b3c09ca93da28dca7a6df",
    "question_raw": "Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?",
    "current_price": 0.165,
    "volume_24h_usd": 30272.464904999993,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 111300.04240299998,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2027-04-30T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices David Lisnard advancing to the French presidential second round at 16%.",
    "$30K in 24h is 27% of all-time volume, notable for a non-frontrunner French candidacy.",
    "Lisnard's LR positioning and French right-wing realignment chatter are likely driving fresh looks.",
    "Resolves on French presidential election first-round results."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 30272.464904999993
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen advance to the s",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/next-french-presidential-election-who-will-advance-to-the-2nd-round",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-05T16:45:18+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-david-lisnard-advance-to-the-second-vol-30272/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-david-lisnard-advance-to-the-second-vol-30272.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}