{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20261030VS06",
  "record_slug": "will-democratic-win-the-house-race-for-n-vol-75714",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-30T07:48:50+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Fresh money backs Democrats in NC-11 on Kalshi at 84%",
  "telemetry": "84% · $76K 24h",
  "headline": "NC-11 Dems Kalshi: 84% on $76K inflow",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "resolved",
    "as_of": "2026-11-04",
    "outcome": "YES",
    "outcome_basis": "resolution_log",
    "final_price": 1,
    "resolved_at": "2026-11-04"
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-0N8GC3M3K5",
  "target_event_slug": "kxhousenc11-26",
  "event_question": "Who will win the North Carolina 11th congressional district House election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXHOUSENC11-26-DEM",
    "question_raw": "Will Democratic win the House race for NC-11?",
    "current_price": 0.84,
    "volume_24h_usd": 75714.05,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 261914.17,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-04T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi independently prices Democrats winning NC-11 at 84%, matching the Polymarket read.",
    "24h volume of $76K is 29% of all-time $262K, a meaningful single-day tranche on a larger pool.",
    "Cross-venue alignment at 84% with simultaneous spikes reinforces the Democratic-lean consensus.",
    "Resolution on NC-11 House race result; see Spikes 0 and 2 for Polymarket cross-reference."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 75714.05
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Who will win the North Carolina 11th congressional dist",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxhousenc11-26",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-30T07:48:50+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-democratic-win-the-house-race-for-n-vol-75714/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-democratic-win-the-house-race-for-n-vol-75714.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}