{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20261104VS06",
  "record_slug": "will-democratic-win-the-house-race-for-n-vol-965498",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-04T07:48:42+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "NY-17 Democratic House odds hold firm at 99%",
  "telemetry": "99% · $965K 24h",
  "headline": "NY-17 House Dem: 99% on $965K Kalshi surge",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-11-04",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-YYRD31F2R5",
  "target_event_slug": "houseny17-26",
  "event_question": "Will a new representative be elected for New York's 17th House district by January 4, 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "HOUSENY17-26-D",
    "question_raw": "Will Democratic win the House race for NY-17?",
    "current_price": 0.992,
    "volume_24h_usd": 965498.45,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 1340880.09,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-04T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices Democratic win in NY-17 at 99%, a toss-up district priced as nearly decided.",
    "72% of all-time volume cleared in 24h, an outsized single-session concentration.",
    "NY-17 is a targeted competitive seat; heavy late volume confirms Democratic lean has held through counting.",
    "Resolves on certified NY-17 2026 House result."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 965498.45
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will a new representative be elected for New York's 17t",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/houseny17-26",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-04T07:48:42+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-democratic-win-the-house-race-for-n-vol-965498/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-democratic-win-the-house-race-for-n-vol-965498.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}