{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260905VS02",
  "record_slug": "will-democratic-win-the-house-race-for-p-vol-20727",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-05T11:35:07+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Buyers back the Democrat in PA-7 as odds stay above 75%",
  "telemetry": "82% · $21K 24h",
  "headline": "Democrat PA-7 House win: 82% on $20K volume spike",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-6S7C40J637",
  "target_event_slug": "housepa7-26",
  "event_question": "Will the winner of Pennsylvania's 7th congressional district House race be determined by January 4, 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "HOUSEPA7-26-D",
    "question_raw": "Will Democratic win the House race for PA-7?",
    "current_price": 0.82,
    "volume_24h_usd": 20727.26,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 81131.76,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-04T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices a Democratic win in Pennsylvania's 7th district at 82%, well above the 75% threshold, a strong lean.",
    "24h volume of $20.7K is 26% of all-time flow, a notable single-day concentration for a House-level contract.",
    "PA-7 is a competitive suburban Philadelphia seat; fresh volume at this price suggests new polling or campaign-finance data is moving traders.",
    "Resolves on the certified winner of the PA-7 general election."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 20727.26
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will the winner of Pennsylvania's 7th congressional dis",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/housepa7-26",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-05T11:35:07+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-democratic-win-the-house-race-for-p-vol-20727/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-democratic-win-the-house-race-for-p-vol-20727.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}