{
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  "record_slug": "will-democratics-win-the-senate-race-in-vol-273644",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-07T10:52:51+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Maine Senate Democratic hold sits at narrow majority odds",
  "telemetry": "57% · $274K 24h",
  "headline": "Democrats win Maine Senate: 57% on $274K spike",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-QVFGZVBLK6",
  "target_event_slug": "senateme-26",
  "event_question": "Will the Maine Senate race be decided by January 4, 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "SENATEME-26-D",
    "question_raw": "Will Democratics win the Senate race in Maine?",
    "current_price": 0.57,
    "volume_24h_usd": 273644.33,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 824934.52,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-04T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "57% reflects a lean-Democrat outlook, consistent with a contested but structurally favorable race.",
    "Kalshi records $274K in 24h, 33% of all-time, suggesting Platner dropout news is reshaping the field.",
    "Volume spike directly linked to Spike 0: Platner exit materially alters the Republican primary and general map.",
    "Contract resolves on Democrats winning Maine's 2026 U.S. Senate general election."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 273644.33
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will the Maine Senate race be decided by January 4, 202",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/senateme-26",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-07T10:52:51+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
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    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-democratics-win-the-senate-race-in-vol-273644.json"
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  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
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