{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG20261102VS01",
  "record_slug": "will-democratics-win-the-senate-race-in-vol-724905",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-02T07:49:23+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Iowa Senate race sits at a coin-flip close to 50%",
  "telemetry": "49% · $725K 24h",
  "headline": "Iowa Senate Dem: 49% on $725K inflow",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "resolved",
    "as_of": "2026-11-04",
    "outcome": "YES",
    "outcome_basis": "resolution_log",
    "final_price": 1,
    "resolved_at": "2026-11-04"
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-R8V0583H75",
  "target_event_slug": "senateia-26",
  "event_question": "Iowa Senate winner?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "SENATEIA-26-D",
    "question_raw": "Will Democratics win the Senate race in Iowa?",
    "current_price": 0.49,
    "volume_24h_usd": 724905.95,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 2549865.96,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-04T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "At 49%, Kalshi prices the Iowa Senate seat as a pure toss-up with no party favored.",
    "$725K in 24h is 28% of all-time volume, significant pre-election repositioning on an undecided race.",
    "A near-50% price the day before voting signals genuine uncertainty and likely tight polling.",
    "Resolves on Iowa Senate general election result."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 724905.95
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Iowa Senate winner?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/senateia-26",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-02T07:49:23+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
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    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-democratics-win-the-senate-race-in-vol-724905.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
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