{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG20261105VS02",
  "record_slug": "will-democrats-hold-218-or-more-seats-in-vol-3335273",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-05T07:49:08+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Traders pile into Democrats holding 218+ House seats at 99%",
  "telemetry": "99% · $3.3M 24h",
  "headline": "Dems 218+ House seats: 99% on $3.3M Election Day bet",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-11-08",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-QK0HJYVMX2",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbluewavecombo-27feb",
  "event_question": "Will there be a blue wave in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBLUEWAVECOMBO-27FEB",
    "question_raw": "Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND hold 49 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms?",
    "current_price": 0.991,
    "volume_24h_usd": 3335273.38,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 12491746.67,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices Democrats holding 218 or more seats in the House at 99%, near-certain majority status.",
    "27% of all-time contract volume, $3.3M, executed in one day, reflecting maximum Election Day conviction.",
    "Live House race results rolling in are collapsing uncertainty and crowding capital to the 'yes' side.",
    "Resolves once certified seat totals confirm the 218-seat threshold is met or missed."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 3335273.38
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will there be a blue wave in 2026?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxbluewavecombo-27feb",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-05T07:49:08+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-democrats-hold-218-or-more-seats-in-vol-3335273/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-democrats-hold-218-or-more-seats-in-vol-3335273.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}