{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260711VS02",
  "record_slug": "will-donald-trump-attend-ufc-329-vol-77930",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-11T09:24:55+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "UFC 329 Trump attendance sits deep in tail-risk territory",
  "telemetry": "3% · $78K 24h",
  "headline": "Trump attends UFC 329: 3% on $78K volume",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-YFTQM3YVN6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxtrumpufc-26jul",
  "event_question": "Will Donald Trump attend UFC 329?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXTRUMPUFC-26JUL-DJT",
    "question_raw": "Will Donald Trump attend UFC 329?",
    "current_price": 0.03,
    "volume_24h_usd": 77930.64,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 130544.5,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolves_at": "2026-07-12T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices Trump attendance at 3%, consistent with a low-probability discretionary travel event.",
    "$78K traded in 24h represents 60% of all-time contract volume, significant acceleration of interest.",
    "UFC appearances have been a recurring Trump public engagement venue; fresh scheduling news or event confirmation likely driving attention.",
    "Contract resolves on confirmed attendance at UFC 329; date and venue details are the near-term catalyst."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 77930.64
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will Donald Trump attend UFC 329?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtrumpufc-26jul",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-11T09:24:55+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-donald-trump-attend-ufc-329-vol-77930/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-donald-trump-attend-ufc-329-vol-77930.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}