{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260829VS01",
  "record_slug": "will-ed-markey-be-the-democratic-nominee-vol-135850",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-29T13:34:58+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Markey nomination odds hold firm through a volume surge",
  "telemetry": "98% · $136K 24h",
  "headline": "Markey MA Dem nominee: 98% on $136K",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "resolved",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": "YES",
    "outcome_basis": "resolution_log",
    "final_price": 1,
    "resolved_at": "2026-09-02"
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-J620PJQLH6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxsenatemad-26",
  "event_question": "Will the Massachusetts Democratic Senate nominee be determined by September 15, 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXSENATEMAD-26-EMAR",
    "question_raw": "Will Ed Markey be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Massachusetts?",
    "current_price": 0.982,
    "volume_24h_usd": 135850.07,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 537603.74,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolves_at": "2026-09-15T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "98% price leaves almost no probability of a credible challenger emerging in the Massachusetts Democratic primary.",
    "Kalshi sees $136K in 24h, hitting 25% of all-time volume, a notable liquidity event for a near-settled contract.",
    "Fresh volume into a 98% market suggests either late entrants locking in yes-side exposure or a small faction testing downside.",
    "Resolves on the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary result."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 135850.07
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will the Massachusetts Democratic Senate nominee be det",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxsenatemad-26",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-29T13:34:58+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-ed-markey-be-the-democratic-nominee-vol-135850/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-ed-markey-be-the-democratic-nominee-vol-135850.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}