{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260816VS01",
  "record_slug": "will-eric-barlow-be-the-republican-nomin-vol-13474",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-16T08:23:38+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Barlow holds at 81% as Wyoming GOP primary draws fresh bets",
  "telemetry": "81% · $13K 24h",
  "headline": "Barlow WY GOP nominee: 81% on $13K Kalshi surge",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "resolved",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": "YES",
    "outcome_basis": "resolution_log",
    "final_price": 1,
    "resolved_at": "2026-08-19"
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-SBQ8NYFV24",
  "target_event_slug": "kxgovwynomr-26",
  "event_question": "Will a Wyoming Republican governor nominee be determined by the 2026 election cycle?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXGOVWYNOMR-26-EBAR",
    "question_raw": "Will Eric Barlow be the Republican nominee for Governor in Wyoming?",
    "current_price": 0.81,
    "volume_24h_usd": 13474.55,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 47847.91,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolves_at": "2026-08-31T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices Barlow at 81%, strong favorite, but roughly 1-in-5 odds of an upset remain.",
    "$13.5K in 24h represents 28% of all-time contract volume, indicating a meaningful conviction push.",
    "Surge likely reflects proximity to the Wyoming GOP primary and new public polling or endorsement news.",
    "Nomination resolution expected at primary; price above 75% suggests money is backing Barlow to clear the field."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 13474.55
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will a Wyoming Republican governor nominee be determine",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxgovwynomr-26",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-16T08:23:38+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-eric-barlow-be-the-republican-nomin-vol-13474/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-eric-barlow-be-the-republican-nomin-vol-13474.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
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