{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20261004VS04",
  "record_slug": "will-flavio-bolsonaro-qualify-for-brazil-vol-56566",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-04T07:48:35+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Flavio Bolsonaro runoff qualifying priced at 97%",
  "telemetry": "97% · $57K 24h",
  "headline": "F. Bolsonaro qualifies runoff: 97% on $57K",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-04",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-J1PPP75GK3",
  "target_event_slug": "which-candidates-will-advance-to-brazils-presidential-runoff",
  "event_question": "Will two candidates advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x023a8c2fd2a78c29c9748a44205e2cbe624d86c11ee41b81d4067ddbbf2a135f",
    "question_raw": "Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?",
    "current_price": 0.971,
    "volume_24h_usd": 56566.752005,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 216138.15888899995,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices Flavio Bolsonaro reaching Brazil's presidential runoff at 97%, near certainty.",
    "26% of all-time volume hit in 24h, affirming the market has little doubt about this outcome.",
    "Volume likely reflects traders hedging or closing positions as the question nears resolution.",
    "Resolves on official Brazilian first-round results in 2026."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 56566.752005
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will two candidates advance to Brazil's presidential ru",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/which-candidates-will-advance-to-brazils-presidential-runoff",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-04T07:48:35+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-flavio-bolsonaro-qualify-for-brazil-vol-56566/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-flavio-bolsonaro-qualify-for-brazil-vol-56566.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}