{
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  "record_slug": "will-google-have-the-best-ai-model-at-th-vol-50257",
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  "published_at": "2026-10-01T07:48:14+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Traders back rivals over Google for top AI by year-end",
  "telemetry": "39% · $50K 24h",
  "headline": "Google best AI model by Dec: 39% on $50K surge",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-01",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-ZQ0Y8QXZ32",
  "target_event_slug": "which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-2026",
  "event_question": "Which company will have the best AI model by the end of 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
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    "platform_market_id": "0x94f240d042917cabd55f0bcbcac7d4d2accd4436773bf91596f76572cac643cb",
    "question_raw": "Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.39,
    "volume_24h_usd": 50257.36567000001,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 151790.570306,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Market prices Google at 39%, odds-against that it leads the AI benchmark race by Dec 31.",
    "33% of all-time volume ($50K of $152K lifetime) landed in 24h, a sharp burst of fresh conviction.",
    "Renewed attention likely tied to competitor model releases or leaked benchmark results circulating now.",
    "Resolves Dec 31, 2026; any major model drop from OpenAI, Anthropic, or Meta could reprice fast."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
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          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 50257.36567000001
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Which company will have the best AI model by the end of",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-2026",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-01T07:48:14+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
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    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-google-have-the-best-ai-model-at-th-vol-50257.json"
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  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
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