{
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  "published_at": "2026-10-01T15:04:01+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Google leads AI race by year-end stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "40% · $59K 24h",
  "headline": "Google best AI model Dec 2026: 40% on $59K",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-01",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-ZQ0Y8QXZ32",
  "target_event_slug": "which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-2026",
  "event_question": "Which company will have the best AI model by the end of 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x94f240d042917cabd55f0bcbcac7d4d2accd4436773bf91596f76572cac643cb",
    "question_raw": "Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.4,
    "volume_24h_usd": 59342.46091200001,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 160875.66554800002,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts Google at 40% to hold the top AI model slot at December 2026 close, a clear underdog position.",
    "24h volume of $59K is 37% of all-time, reflecting meaningful renewed interest, not a one-day anomaly.",
    "Likely catalyzed by Anthropic-vs-Google competitive news; this contract trades in direct tension with Spike 2.",
    "Resolves end of December 2026, implied odds suggest the market is betting against a Google recovery."
  ],
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      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
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          "inputs": [
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            "volume_cumulative_usd"
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      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 59342.46091200001
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Which company will have the best AI model by the end of",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-2026",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-01T15:04:01+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
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  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
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