{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20261008VS05",
  "record_slug": "will-isaias-be-the-first-named-hurricane-vol-12845",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-08T07:49:04+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Isaias as 2026's first Atlantic hurricane is all but priced in",
  "telemetry": "99% · $13K 24h",
  "headline": "Isaias first Atlantic hurricane: 99% on $12.8K",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "resolved",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": "YES",
    "outcome_basis": "resolution_log",
    "final_price": 1,
    "resolved_at": "2026-10-08"
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-VWP9GBVJX7",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfirsthurricane-26dec01atl",
  "event_question": "What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic this year?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFIRSTHURRICANE-26DEC01ATL-ISA",
    "question_raw": "Will Isaias be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.99,
    "volume_24h_usd": 12845.83,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 38012.83,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices Isaias as the first named Atlantic hurricane of 2026 at 99%, leaving almost no uncertainty.",
    "34% of all-time volume, $12.8K, arrived in 24 hours, likely confirming a storm already in progress or imminently named.",
    "Near-certainty pricing with fresh volume suggests the market is settling rather than discovering, final capital positioning at the finish line.",
    "Resolves once Isaias is officially classified as the first hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic season."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 12845.83
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atl",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfirsthurricane-26dec01atl",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-08T07:49:04+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-isaias-be-the-first-named-hurricane-vol-12845/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-isaias-be-the-first-named-hurricane-vol-12845.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}