{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20261007VS04",
  "record_slug": "will-isaias-be-the-first-named-hurricane-vol-13471",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-07T15:02:49+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Isaias leads the 2026 Atlantic season at 97%",
  "telemetry": "97% · $13K 24h",
  "headline": "Isaias first 2026 Atlantic hurricane: 97% on $13K",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "resolved",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": "YES",
    "outcome_basis": "resolution_log",
    "final_price": 1,
    "resolved_at": "2026-10-08"
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-VWP9GBVJX7",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfirsthurricane-26dec01atl",
  "event_question": "What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic this year?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFIRSTHURRICANE-26DEC01ATL-ISA",
    "question_raw": "Will Isaias be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.97,
    "volume_24h_usd": 13471.45,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 30694.68,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices Isaias as the first named Atlantic hurricane of 2026 at 97%, indicating the storm has already achieved or is on the verge of hurricane status.",
    "44% of all-time volume hit in 24 hours as traders finalize positions ahead of imminent meteorological resolution.",
    "Volume at near-certain odds reflects late confirming trades as NHC advisories track the storm's intensification in real time.",
    "Resolves YES if Isaias is officially designated the first Atlantic hurricane of the 2026 season by NHC."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 13471.45
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atl",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfirsthurricane-26dec01atl",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-07T15:02:49+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-isaias-be-the-first-named-hurricane-vol-13471/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-isaias-be-the-first-named-hurricane-vol-13471.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}