{
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  "record_slug": "will-karishma-manzur-be-the-democratic-n-vol-12511",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-29T13:34:58+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Manzur NH Senate nomination trades as a long shot at 6%",
  "telemetry": "6% · $13K 24h",
  "headline": "Manzur NH Dem Senate nominee: 6% on $13K",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-HY8R70V952",
  "target_event_slug": "new-hampshire-democratic-senate-primary-winner",
  "event_question": "Will the Democratic Party winner of the New Hampshire Senate primary be determined by the 2026 primary election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x1cf96ff28b0fa76e23f12a0cf299fc3bced8b26e0addfc1ef11fb58347c0216e",
    "question_raw": "Will Karishma Manzur be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?",
    "current_price": 0.061,
    "volume_24h_usd": 12511.054092999999,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 49133.826359999985,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-09-08T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "6% price signals the market sees Manzur as a heavy underdog in New Hampshire's Democratic Senate primary.",
    "Polymarket records $13K in 24h, 25% of all-time volume, a material liquidity event for a lower-profile race.",
    "Volume into a 6% candidate may reflect a speculative position ahead of a primary filing deadline or polling release.",
    "Resolves on the New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary result."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 12511.054092999999
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will the Democratic Party winner of the New Hampshire S",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/new-hampshire-democratic-senate-primary-winner",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-29T13:34:58+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
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    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-karishma-manzur-be-the-democratic-n-vol-12511.json"
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  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
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